UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, April 2nd 2026.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) are forecast to come close to repeating their 2021 result, and to potentially retain control of the Scottish Parliament in alliance with another party

This is the first UK-Elect forecast for the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election, created on April 2nd 2026 using an approximate average of the latest Scottish Parliament opinion poll percentages. It shows the SNP almost repeating their 2021 result but falling 7 seats short of an overall majority. They will be able to govern with support from one of the smaller parties, such as the Green Party who are forecast to win 14 seats overall.

The percentages used for this forecast were - Constituency vote: SNP 37%, Reform UK 17%, Lab 17%, Con 10%, Green 9%, Lib Dem 8%, Other 2%. Regional member vote: SNP 31%, Reform UK 18%, Lab 17%, Green 12%, Con 11%, Lib Dem 9%, Other 2%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

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Party Seats Change SNP 58 -6 Reform UK 18 +18 Labour 17 -5 Green 14 +6 Conservative 11 -20 Liberal Democrat 11 +7 Scottish National Party - Short by 7 Party AMS Change Reform UK 18 +18 Labour 13 -7 Conservative 6 -20 Green 13 +5 Liberal Democrat 6 +6 SNP 0 -2 Additional Member Seats - Reform UK gain 18.

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election. The UK-Elect v13.2 method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was made using the Additional Member System used in the Scottish Parliament elections.

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