UK-Elect Senedd Forecast, April 8th 2026.

Plaid Cymru are forecast to become the largest party in the Senedd (Welsh Parliament)

This is the first UK-Elect forecast for the 2026 Senedd Election, created on April 8th 2026 using an approximate average of the latest Senedd opinion poll percentages. It shows Plaid Cymru falling 12 seats short of an overall majority.

The percentages used for this forecast were - Plaid Cymru 30%, Reform UK 27%, Lab 16%, Green 11%, Con 9%, Lib Dem 6%.. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

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See also:
Senedd forecast 2026  

Party Seats Change Plaid Cymru 37 (+24) Reform UK 31 (+31) Labour 15 (-15) Green 6 (+6) Conservative 6 (-10) Liberal Democrat 1 - Plaid Cymru 12 short of overall majority. The change is in comparison with the 2021 election, but note that this is the first Senedd election using a new electoral system (Party List rather than the Additional Member System) and with more seats (96 rather than 60).

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2024 UK General Election constituencies and associated results in Wales. (These UK General Election constituencies form the basis for the 2026 Senedd constituencies, each of which consists of a combination of two of the UK constituencies.) The UK-Elect v13.2 method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was made using the Party List System that will be used (for the first time) in the 2026 Senedd elections.

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